I was at a party a little while back, and I heard somebody say that they were expecting big changes coming out of the 2006 election cycle. He said something like, "The Republicans have peaked. They're over."
He's half right. The Republican party has peaked and is beginning to slide into rampant big government authoritarianism. The problem with his analysis is that the Democratic party is showing no signs of hitting bottom, much less rebounding. Not only has Dean spent them broke, but they can't even manage to come up with a coherent platform other than, "We aren't Republicans," and that's not enough.
Compounding the problem for the 2008 Presidential election cycle is the fact that the primary system plays to the extremist segments of both parties, resulting in polarizing candidates who have a very difficult time reaching to the moderates. As John Hawkins points out in his assessment of a Giuliani Presidential run, much of the Republican base feel that Bush is too centrist, and will work for a candidate somewhere to the right of him. This could spell disaster for the Republicans, except for the fact that the Democrats are headed down the same road, as the extreme left has control of the party, and will certainly back a candidate to the left of Kerry.
It may seem nonsensical now, but as Hillary positions herself more to the center, Al Gore may actually become an attractive candidate for the extreme left.
For argument's sake, let's say that Hillary gets the nod for the Democrats, and Frist gets it for the Republicans. That creates a tremendous amount of space between them for a true centrist candidate, one that runs as a fiscal and defense conservative and social liberal.
Think of some of the tickets that kind of triangulation could produce; can you picture McCain and Lieberman on the same ticket? How about Giuliani and either of them?
Yeah, I know, third parties can't win. But I'll tell you something. When I voted for Bush the first time, it wasn't because I thought he'd make an excellent President, but because he was the best of a bad choice. Had there been a credible third party candidate, I would have happily given him/her my vote.
And I don't think I'm alone on that.
Now, I will not talk about politics again for at least 4 months.
The final sentence of the preceding statement is not meant to be taken literally. Mr Hailey reserves the right to write about politics anytime he so chooses. The above statement was made for effect only, and should not be taken as a sign of intent or a binding promise. In fact, forget he wrote it. It was 2AM after a long hard day, and he wasn't thinking straight.
Posted by Rich at March 8, 2006 1:47 AM | TrackBack