Wow! Two political entries in two days; am I back on the beat again?
Rest easy, folks; I'm not ready to ride that horse again. But I've always written about what interests me, and this is a situation that I find fascinating.
There are a lot of conservatives gleefully cackling and rubbing their hands at the thought of Howard Dean running the DNC, predicting imminent disaster for the Democratic Party. They picture another "YEEEAAAARGH!" meltdown for Dean, which in their minds will make things worse for the Democrats.
And while I do think that Dean will ultimately be a divisive force in the Democratic Party (more about that in a moment), I think most of the conservatives are badly underestimating Dean.
A quick review. He came virtually out of nowhere, drummed up enourmous amounts of cash, and forced the entire field, excepting Joe Lieberman, to move left in order to try and counter him. He's internet savvy, understanding how to use it as a fundraising tool as well as a sort of grass roots amplifier, generating enormous media buzz. He energized the young voters, the ones that stayed home last November, that Kerry couldn't capture. In short, he's charismatic, young voters identify with him, and he can raise a ton of money.
Now tell me again how exactly is this a good thing for conservatives?
"But Rich, he blows up! He makes funny noises on the campaign trail! He'll embarrass the Democrats repeatedly!"
Folks, he's not running for elected office. He's not running for president. Nobody will care about his eccentricities, and in fact, the very traits that hurt him during the campaign may well be assets in fundraising. People like characters; they'll respond to Dean even more as a fundraiser. He'll give the party a freshness it desperately lacked during the last election cycle.
I state it plainly; Howard Dean will make a formidable opponent as DNC chair. Look at the way he just squashed the last minute attempt by the Clinton folks to derail his candidacy. The Clintons represent the last successes of the Democratic Party and Dean blew them off and his campaign didn't even hiccup.
So those of you out there thinking that Dean is going to destroy the Democratic Party might want to hold off celebrating until after the 2006 elections.
So, if I think he's so strong, why do I think he will ultimately split the party?
Well, there are a couple of reasons. When you get right down to it, Sen. Kerry never recovered from running against Dean. In order to steal Dean's thunder and win the nomination, Kerry had to run further to the left than he'd planned. Many of the statements and flip flops that came back to haunt him during the Presidential race had their seeds in the race for the nomination. The Bush campaign had a field day. Even worse for Kerry, Dean excited the imaginations of the youth vote; he connected with them in a way that John Kerry couldn't. When Dean left the race, so did they, ultimately costing Democrats the White House.
With Dean as chair, they'll come back to politics, pulling the Party further to the left. I'm guessing that whichever candidate gets the nod in 2008 will run to the left for the entire campaign, ignoring the conventional wisdom that says they must run to the center after winning the nomination. While this will fire up the youth and the liberal base, it may well alienate moderate Democrats and independents, leading to problems at the polls. I will be very interested to see what will happen when a liberal Democrat runs for President as a liberal Democrat. And don't bother pointing to Mondale; times and people have changed significantly since then. But if past experience does hold true, 2008 will be another solid win for Republicans, leading to the split in the Democratic Party I was talking about.
Earlier, I wasn't sure whether the far left wing would leave the Democratic Party or capture it. With Dean at the helm, that question has been answered. My guess is that moderate liberals will leave the Democratic Party, accelerating an existing trend, but they won't join the Republicans. Instead, I believe they will form a true third party, along with moderate conservatives and libertarians disturbed by the growth of government under Bush. Who knows, they may perform a takeover of their own, and bring a little sanity to the Libertarian Party.
God knows, they could use it.
Anyway, I like the idea of Dean as Chair of the DNC. Not because I think it gives conservatives a big advantage; I don't see that as the case. But because it's nice to see a little honesty in politics for a change instead of hypocrisy. I disagree with most of what he has to say, but at least I know he means it when he says it.
You can't say that about many politicians in either party these days.
And now I'm off to see a movie. In my quest to see all the Oscar nominated movies, I'm going to go see either Sadeways, or Hotel Rwanda. I'll give you my take on them tomorrow.
Or the day after.
Posted by Rich at February 3, 2005 8:54 PM | TrackBack