November 3, 2004

4:00AM and It's Not Deja Vu!

Significant differences:

  • President Bush has won a majority of the popular vote by ~4 million votes. No president since his father has done that.
  • Despite efforts by the Kerry campaign to cast Ohio as this election's Florida, as of right now with 99% of precincts reporting, President Bush holds a 145,000 vote lead. Ohio Sec of State has stated that there are about 110,000 provisional ballots, not the 250,000 claimed by the Kerry camp. As it stands right now, even if there were 250,000 ballots, and all of them were valid, Kerry would need 80% of them to even come close to catching up.

    Instead of a few hundred votes, as we had in Florida, this time we're dealing with an unassailable margin. Ohio is Bush country.

  • ABC has called Nevada for Bush, and it looks like Iowa will be called soon, adding to the President's lead. As for Florida, the President has a 374,000 vote margin, solidifying his hold on that state.
  • The country, while still narrowly divided, has made it's will clear by increasing Republican majorities in the House and the Senate, including unseating Tom Daschle.
  • This time around, President Bush is the incumbent, not a challenger, which gives him a tremendous advantage. There's no cloud hanging over him if the process plays out over the next couple of days. He can go on about the country's business without having to worry about being seen as presumptuous.

The clock is running against Kerry; he needs to come up with a convincing attack quickly, or risk being seen as a sore loser. Even worse for Democrats, he could drag the entire party down with him if he continues to fight a losing battle.

Posted by Rich at November 3, 2004 3:22 AM | TrackBack