January 8, 2004

This Has Got to be Killing the Democrats

They've been screaming about Bush for over three years now, and for the last several months, nine democratic candidates for President have been bashing him relentlessly. This whole time, Bush has not been in campaign mode, (well, he has been fundraising) but doing his job, running the country.

Yet his approval ratings keep going up! Imagine what will happen when he actually starts campaigning!

Choice tidbits from the poll:

  • 60% approve to only 35% disapprove of how President Bush is handling the job
  • 43% approve to 49% disapprove of his stance on healthcare.
  • John Kerry may want to throw in the towel. The last year has not been good to him. Since Dec of 2002, his favorable rating has held steady at 31%. But, his unfavorable rating has increased from 13 to 32%.
  • Joe Lieberman has slipped over the last year from 44 to 38% favorable while his unfavorable rating has risen from 24 to 37%
  • More people (27%) have never heard of John Edwards, or don't care (25%) than either like (24%) or dislike(24%) him.
  • Dick Gephardt has seen a similar erosion in his support, falling from 40% to 34% favorable
  • Wesley Clark has fared beeter than most in the poll, slipping only from 39 to 37% favorable, although his unfavorable rating has doubled, from 13 to 26%.
  • And then there was Howard Dean, the man that's going to save the democrats. Favorable 28% Unfavorable 39%!

OK, based on these numbers, it looks to me like Wes Clark represents the dems better than the rest of the candidates, although Dean may win the noination based on his strong organization.

And what will that mean come November?

Bush against the democratic field wins handily, 55%-38%

Bush against Dean wins in a landslide, 59% to 37%

The game's not over yet, and there could always be some surprises, but given the dissarray in the democratic party (the candidate they like least is the most likely choice for nominee), the election appears to be Bush's to lose.

The question now appears to be how big his coattails will be. Will he bring enough Senate victories to make his second term filibuster proof?

Posted by Rich at January 8, 2004 11:06 AM | TrackBack
Comments
The game's not over yet, and there could always be some surprises, but given the dissarray in the democratic party (the candidate they like least is the most likely choice for nominee), the election appears to be Bush's to lose.

For some perspective here, in 1992, Clinton didn't poll ahead of Bush until late July at the convention.

There's no "disarray" in the democratic party, just the normal process of candidate selection between many qualified candidates, many of whom (Dean and Clark included) are quite capable of beating Bush, and all of whom are capable of doing a better job, nonetheless.

I ain't scared.

Posted by: Chris Wage on January 8, 2004 2:47 PM

I'm just jaded enough now that I don't believe more than 49% of what the polls tell us. ;-) You know that if/when there is an 'incident' regarding the terrorists, be it large or small...those that have relaxed since 9/11 will suddenly tense up and blame Bush again.

It aint over till the fat lady sings!

Posted by: radtec on January 9, 2004 4:17 PM
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