January 8, 2004
The Numbers Didn't Lie...
Week 52 data for the flu epidemic is now available at the CDC website, and it is an eye-opener.
The number of states reporting widespread influenza activity decreased during week 52 (December 21 - 27, 2003). However, the percentage of outpatient visits for influenza-like illness (ILI) continued to increase (9.4%), and pneumonia and influenza (P & I) mortality (9.0%) exceeded the epidemic threshold for week 52 (7.9%).
What does this mean to you and me? Just that, when tracking an infectious disease, it's probably better to listen to actual epidemiologists than to a guy who's just been writing about them.
As you can see from the latest chart, the dip from last week did not indicate a peak, but a momentary lull. Possible factors in the lull are incomplete reporting due to the holidays, fewer people going to the doctor because of the holidays, or an actual dip in the rate of spread. In any case, it is clear that the flu continues to spread further and faster than the comparison year of 1999-00.
The good news is that several states are reporting that they have peaked, indicating that the national peak may come soon, perhaps in 2-3 weeks.
To continue the analysis, we also need to look at the current mortality chart. As I predicted last week, the mortality rate is climbing rapidly, and is on a pace to exceed 1999-00 by a significant margin. This was easily predictable based on the history of past flu epidemics, and it amazes me that Fumento could have missed it.
But maybe that's why he is a reporter instead of a doctor.
(And what does that say about you, Mr. Hailey? Hmmmm?)
Hey, the same applies to me as well. I'm not a doctor; I'm not a scientist; I'm not even a professional writer, since I do this stuff for free. But, unlike Mr. Fumento, I don't have a vested interest in being an ass. I can write whatever I like without worrying about whether it will sell or not, and that gives me an objectivity that he can't afford.
Of course, there is another, important difference between us.
I was right!
UPDATE!
New data was released today, just after I wrote the above. As the charts above show, I was too pessimistic in my assessment, as it appears the peak is behind us. Week 53 data shows a steep drop in the rate of new cases, although mortality due to the flu is still climbing (from 9 to 9.4%) and well above epidemic levels.
One thing I want to point out is that the latest data confirms an observation Stormy Dragon made, that there is an inverse relationship between the severity and the duration of a flu outbreak. This simply makes sense if we consider that the population susceptible to the flu is limited, and the faster the flu spreads, the quicker that pool of potential victems is exhausted.
But it's nice to see theory play out in practice.
Posted by Rich at January 8, 2004 10:30 AM | TrackBack