The UN Security Council unanimously agreed to the US sponsored resolution on Iraq. In essence, the the US is in a 'can't lose' position. If the UN helps with Iraqi reconstruction, great; if they don't, they are shown to be ineffectual, irrelevant, and hypocritical. Once again, they've given President Bush what he wanted, something they had no intention of doing. Their underestimation of his acumen continues to cost them.
But there's another factor at work here, one that needs exploration. The UNSC has agreed to support the reconstruction of Iraq, without requiring a specific timetable, increased authority, or anything else pushed by France, Germany, and the rest.
Why?
In short, had they continued to balk, then they would have been demonstrating their increasing irrelevance.
Here's the thing; the unanimous passage of this resolution signals that things are going well in Iraq, much better than France or Germany thought possible. As long as they thought the US was stepping into another Viet Nam, their best strategy lay in sniping from the sidelines, allowing the US to flounder, digging itself in deeper, until at last we would have to crawl to the UN for help. By agreeing to the new resolution, they abandoned that strategy, and that has telegraphed their evaluation of the situation in Iraq. If it were a quagmire, as most of the press would have us believe, France and Germany would have at the very least abstained from the vote, hoping to add to the US troubles. Since they approved the measure, that signals that they know things are going well in Iraq, and that they are rapidly losing leverage. The only way for the UN to maintain any relevance now is to be seen as allied to the US efforts, rather than opposed.
Additional pressure was put on the Security Council by the Japanese, who agreed to donate just over $1 billion to the Iraqi reconstruction effort. By making their move when they did, Japan demonstrated to the UN just how dangerously close they were to becoming totally irrelevant. Just as importantly, they also demonstrated that the US has political and economic partners that do not answer to the EU, something that is probably keeping Chirac up late at night.
Posted by Rich at October 19, 2003 6:39 PM | TrackBackThe Valerie Plame leak will lead to Dick Cheney resigning by January 1, 2004.
Posted by: rain on parade on October 19, 2003 8:38 PM"The Valerie Plame leak will lead to Dick Cheney resigning by January 1, 2004."
The head of the CIA will turn out to be Saudi plant and will be terminated with extreme prejudice.
Posted by: Bruce on October 19, 2003 8:44 PMGreat points! France, Germany and Russia are in another bind as well. To the extent that Al Qaeda attempts to make Iraq a new front in their war with the West the Continentals will be compelled to join the effort. Their cynical attitude and totalitarian dictators doesn't extent to suicide terrorism, fortunately. They apparently have enough sense to know that they can't strike a deal with UBL (even if they wanted to).
Posted by: Scott on October 19, 2003 8:49 PMOne more inch of rain will delay the crops by another three days.
Posted by: John on October 19, 2003 8:51 PMThat pesky Cheney, he is the one leaking stuff!
anyone who claims to be certain of this should evaluate the process by which they make decisions. they are as kooky as the people who believe that clinton murdered 40 members of his own staff.
the leak was CIA, even if an admin leak occured, there was a CIA leak, and it seems reasonable that the CIA, with its anx against the prez, actually had a good idea of what would occur. This is possible, but not certain. Also possible is that the admin meant to prove how incompetant Wilson was, (he was) by proving that his only reason for being selected was nepotism. His wife is no longer an agent, and was not onw at the time. She worked as a spy by pretending ot be the innocent ambassador's wife. If the admin meant to punish Wilson, there are smarter ways than relying on "friends" such as CNN and the W. Post.
anyway, who knows what really happened. The Bush admin has been brilliant in manipulating the UN and the Senate, I doubt they are this stupid, but who knows?
anyway, to pretend that you do know of some insidious plot is ridiculous, it isnt as though this was a leak to terrorists, the first person to realize the problem was Plame herself.
Posted by: Dustin on October 19, 2003 9:11 PMThe Valerie Plame leak will lead to Bush, Cheney, and the entire leadership of the Republikkkan Admini$tration resigning, until the Secretary of Transportation is in line for succession. Norm Mineta will become President, and appoint Al Gore VP. Then Mineta will resign, making Gore our President, and Gore will appoint Wesley Clark (D-CNN) as his Vice President, and lead the Democrats into the November election, where Democrats will win 99.9% of the votes and take control of all Senate and Congressional districts (all Republican Senators not up for re-election will resign in disgrace, as will all Republican Governors, and Democrats will fill those offices to).
Then we will finally have the real Democratic one-party state that we have always deserved!!!!
Posted by: Heavens-to-Mergatroid on October 19, 2003 9:28 PMYikes, we had that in California and the Demokrats ruined the state.. no thank you.
Posted by: Lurch237 on October 19, 2003 9:44 PM"The Valerie Plame leak will lead to Bush, Cheney, and the entire leadership of the Republikkkan Admini$tration resigning, until the Secretary of Transportation is in line for succession. Norm Mineta will become President, and appoint Al Gore VP. Then Mineta will resign, making Gore our President, and Gore will appoint Wesley Clark (D-CNN) as his Vice President, and lead the Democrats into the November election, where Democrats will win 99.9% of the votes and take control of all Senate and Congressional districts (all Republican Senators not up for re-election will resign in disgrace, as will all Republican Governors, and Democrats will fill those offices to).
Then we will finally have the real Democratic one-party state that we have always deserved!!!!"
...and then the nice man will bring us all a big dose of thorazine and we can all go to art therapy - we're going to fingerpaint today - mine is a picture of the aliens from Area 49½ awarding the pangalactic medal of meritorious niceness to President Gore for taxing all the evil rich people and giving everyone a puppy. He really did win in 2000 ya' know, even though my therapist doesn't believe me...
Posted by: Heavens-to-Mergatroid Too on October 19, 2003 10:18 PMJoe said Valerie told him about her job right after their first kiss. That is usually when I told girls [before I was married, of course] that I was a secret agent needing a local bedroom to hide out in until I could escape the enemy agents.
It didn't work then...
You forgot this resolution had on the Democrats. They've been sniping about "unilateralism" for months now. This took that issue completely out of circulation.
ed
Posted by: ed on October 19, 2003 10:47 PMValerie Plame worked for the CIA as a "top secret" NOC; a spy to you and me. Her husand worked for the Middle East Institute, on the payroll of a foreign government, Saudi Arabia. There is a scandal because her "top secret" identity became public, and I personally am scandalized (I know several people who have worked in the Intelligence community, though I have not). My question is: Why is there not also a scandal that she was married to someone on the payroll of a foreign government. (My email address is genuine if you wish to explain off line)
Posted by: Richard Carr on October 19, 2003 11:15 PMIf the administration wanted to discredit Wilson, all that was necessary was to sit him in front of a microphone and let him speak. Rather than leak his wife's name, they should have simply begged that he go on Meet the Press and any other Sunday talk show that would have him. A week or two of that and we'd have heard no more from him.
Posted by: Barry on October 19, 2003 11:22 PMRichard Carr:
George H.W. Bush, Frank Carlucci, Henry Kissinger, and much of the rest of the Republican establishment has been on Saudi Arabia's payroll for decades. Halliburton has also taken millions of Saudi $$, implicating Dick Cheney (the aforementioned authorizer of the Plame leak) as well.
Posted by: rain on parade on October 19, 2003 11:32 PMIt must be autumn, the nuts are falling.
Posted by: Just Some Poor Schmuck on October 19, 2003 11:54 PMI think the little $$ make your scandal theories more plausible. It's just too clever not to be true. However, you forgot to spell Bu$h correctly or mention the BFEE (Bush Family Evil Empire).
Posted by: sunshine up wazoo on October 20, 2003 12:12 AMI think it's amusing that all you wingnuts are SHOCKED. . . and. . . APPALLED that Wilson once did some work for a Saudi-backed operation while ignoring the activites of the Carlyle Group and Kissenger Associates, which have practically become wholly owned subsidiaries of the Saudi government.
Posted by: rain on parade on October 20, 2003 12:17 AM
Are you serious? Our erstwhile allies (allies until we dumped them) were happy to sign off on this empty resolution, to immunize themselves against allegations of being unhelpful. But read today's papers. Any help they do give will go through a World Bank affiliated organization that will not only call its own shots, planning-wise, but will be able to hire what contractors it sees fit (i.e., from donor countries).
The UN is irrelevant and those that are in the know are aware of this. What happens if this becomes part of the general concsiousness? I say, bye bye (and good riddance) Al Qaeda on the Hudson. If the American people become how aware the UN has been acting against their interests then sayonara Kofi, you scumbag.
Posted by: David Gillies on October 20, 2003 12:50 AM"rain on parade":
"George H.W. Bush, Frank Carlucci, Henry Kissinger, and much of the rest of the Republican establishment has been on Saudi Arabia's payroll for decades. Halliburton has also taken millions of Saudi $$, implicating Dick Cheney (the aforementioned authorizer of the Plame leak) as well."
Damn, you're on to us. I'm a member of the Republican establishment, and I've been on Saudi Arabia's payroll for decades. It's a pretty cool gig. You buy gas for your car; I get a piece of the action. Hell, I get a piece of the action when I buy gas for MY car. How cool is that? But it gets better. With all that Saudi money, we steal the election in Florida, and then OUR "president" cuts our taxes; man, I've got so much f*cking money lying around my house I can hardly get around the place. I'll probably have to rent me some hookers to, uh, help me clean up the place... yeah, that's what I'll do. Oh - gotta go - seems Cheney is calling for advice as how to stuff his cash too...
Posted by: Tim on October 20, 2003 1:24 AMDamn Tim, where was the VRWC memo outlining that? I must have missed it in *my* copy of the weekly talking points. I demand a recount of how much money I should be raking in as a loyal VRWC member.
Posted by: cannon on October 20, 2003 1:55 AM"reign-of-parades", you would be well-advised to ascertain that your brain is engaged before you open your mouth OR set your fingers in motion on the keyboard...
But then again, if you're into 'wingnuts' instead of coherent criticism, feedback, argument, discussion, dialogue or debate, then perhaps you'd be better off publishing your OWN blog!
That way your inaccuracies, bloviation and simple-mindedness would attract many others of a like mind, and provide you with ego-boosting praise and support.
Yet "rain" doesn't see fit to mention former CIA/State/Ambassadors on the Saudi P/R. There's more than enough to go around.
Posted by: Sandy p. on October 20, 2003 2:17 AMGuys -- I'm not kidding -- Carlyle Group and Kissenger Associates' biggest clients are Saudia Arabia and Saudia Arabian interests. And Halliburton and Bechtel have done A LOT of work (presumably not pro bono) for Saudi Arabia. Anyway, if you don't believe me, you should read Robert Baer's book:
Posted by: rain on parade on October 20, 2003 2:20 AMYou conduct this argument in a rather quaint "politics-as-sport" manner that is very charming. The fact of the matter is that Bush went into Iraq because he needed to distract the public from the economy and to give us the impression that he could actually do something meaningful about Islamic terrorism. The invasion of Iraq was quite successful on both points. But do not kid yourselves; there was no principle involved here. Stop acting like you know what the hell is going on. Surely you don't believe that Bush is on some kind of statesmanlike mission here. Here is the agenda: maximizing wealth for his core constituency of businessmen and old money aristocrats. Invading other countries and attacking terrorists is just a sideshow, a nod to the poor saps out in the hustings who need to see bombs falling every few years, lest they start to believe that America has lost control of things. I admire George W. Bush. He is a great salesman.
Posted by: Tom on October 20, 2003 2:28 AMTom:
Grow up.
Posted by: Bildo on October 20, 2003 3:15 AMhey! they really showed that fucking UN!!! take it UN!
Posted by: gnok on October 20, 2003 3:20 AM"Guys -- I'm not kidding "
That's the pathetic part. He got his ideas from a book, FROM A BOOK, so they must be true!
Posted by: moptop on October 20, 2003 4:21 AM"Stop acting like you know what the hell is going on."
Yeah guys, stop it! We all know perfectly well that these guys have come up with a new method of analysis, Imputed Motive, that has us dead to rights. They know everything now. They know that Bu$h (we can spell it correctly publicly now that the secret is out) was behind 911. ITS IN A BOOK!
First came the dialectal approach, but as we all know Reagan demonstrated its limitations, but, as we all have now learned to our chagrin, this new "Imputed Motives" analysis is far superior at arriving at the TRUTH. The jig is up.
Posted by: moptop on October 20, 2003 4:33 AMrain:
Let's see - Halliburton is one of the two largest oilfield service companies in the world, Schlumberger is the other one, Saudi Arabia is the world's largest producer of oil. Ergo Halliburton does work in the Saudi Arabian oilfields. Bechtel is one of the largest worldwide engineering firms, it specializes in oil refinery construction. Ergo Bechtel does work in Saudi Arabia the largest producer of oil in the world.
I think that I've read brags from both company's PR departments that they are represented in every oilfield in the world. I'm sure that both company's annual reports reflect income from Saudi Arabia. So no conspiracy there. And if no conspiracy then what is your point? And why just Halliburton and Bechtel? Can't be just Chaney since he never worked for Bechtel. OK, Shultz and Weinberger but they are so...well, so yesterday, no?
What about Otis Elevator - I think I rode in one once in Ras Tanura? Or Chevrolet, I know I rode in one of those once in Saudi Arabia?
Posted by: Larry R Duncan on October 20, 2003 6:53 AMChalk one up for Dubya - regarding the actual post up for discussion - excellent analysis. Seems like it was sooo good that the looney birds had to resort to whoop-whooping it up in order to draw attention away from the cold hard reality staring them in the face.
Posted by: Becky on October 20, 2003 8:08 AMTom:
"Stop acting like you know what the hell is going on."
Why? So we can sit back and listen to you tell us what the hell is going on?
What is it about you Vast (fill in the direction) Wing Conspiracy nitwits, and your absolute certainty that you have a better bead on reality than the rest of us?
Do us all a favor and go play with some tin foil.
I believe you'll find that, outside oilwell fire fighting, Schlumberger (plus, perhaps, a British company) is doing all the oilfield work in Iraq and that Schlumberger does a great deal in SA and all other oil fields in the world. Haliburton did handle oil fire extinguishing in Iraq via subsidiary "Boots & Coots" which has a major world-wide market share on the technology and skills for it. The only viable alternative is a French company -- not a serious possiblity. That fire fighting project is now complete.
Bechtel completed refurbishment of nearly 1200 schools in Iraq serving nearly one million children in time for school opening this Fall. Very few construction companies in the world are large enough to provide the needed resources to pull off such an accomplishment. One alternative in the region would have been Bin Laden Construction of SA.
Posted by: Dean Douthatd on October 20, 2003 11:03 AMThe YouEnd is certainly not done with us. From
leaching our economic and military strength to
having us chase gremlins and trolls all over the
Pacific. Then with us running about our own
country, turning over this rock and that looking
for al-qweedo spooks they hope to hide their own
indescretions while sucking their countries dry
of natural resources or felching them from
others. I hope Dubya has as much resolve with them as he did with Sodamn Insane.
I've a book to read, Orwell's "1984". Red is blue and blue is green, repeat. Grill some tripe call it steak, repeat. Take a poll and see how the plebes are handling the newspeak, then give them some more to keep them busy. I wonder what their bisquits taste like?
You can call it a T-bone, but it is still
pig guts.
I don't see why everyone is so keen about dumping the UN. Consider the alternatives. The UN may fall short when it comes to a peacekeeping force, but it does a decent job when it comes to humanitarian support. This decision by the UN only strengthens that point. They saw that the Iraqy people need their country rebuilt so they will help. If you want a global police force then maybe there should be a different orginization formed just for that purpose...
Posted by: Isaac on October 20, 2003 11:21 AM