SKBubba has put up a post on air quality in Tennessee, and TVA's pollution reduction efforts. He uses the post to take a swipe at the Bush administration saying:
"The current administrations [sic] relaxed attitude about air pollution can also be seen in TVA's data. Note some of the changes on the current administration's watch:Allen: SO2 up 35% and CO2 up 53% since 1999.
Bull Run: SO2 up 10%, NOX up 37% since 1999.
Colbert: NOX declined from 2000 to 2001, increased in 2002.
Cumberland: SO2 declined from 2000 to 2001, increased in 2002.
Gallatin: NOX declined from 1999 to 2000, began steady increase in 2001.
Johnsonville: NOX decreased from 2000 to 2001, increased in 2002. SO2 decreased from 1999 to 2001, increased in 2002.
Shawnee: NOX and SO2 emissions declined from 1999 to 2001, then increased sharply in 2002
Pretty damning. Until you look at all the data to get a real picture of what's going on. Starting from the top: (all data in thousands of tons unless otherwise specified)
The average SO2 emissions from the Allen plant during the last four years (1997-200) of the Clinton admin were 18.5. For the first two years of Bush: 17.1. For CO2, Clinton's numbers were 4765.3 Bush 5144. So what are we looking at? Under the Bush administration, the Allen plant averages less SO2 emissions, and only an 8% increase in CO2 emissions than the previous administration. That's a far cry from 35% and 53% increases, isn't it?
Maybe the Allen plant is an exception. Maybe the other plants that Bubba cites are the real bad guys.
Nope.
Bull Run
SO2 Clinton 49.25 Bush 42.6 Decrease
NOX Clinton 15.6 Bush 17.5 12% increase
Colbert:
NOX Clinton 16.2 Bush 15.1 Decrease
Cumberland:
SO2 Clinton 19.3 Bush 16.1 Decrease
Gallatin:
NOX Clinton 11.8 Bush 11.4 Decrease
Johnsonville:
NOX Clinton 19.9 Bush 22.4 12.6% Increase
SO2 Clinton 117 Bush 101.5 Decrease
Shawnee
SO2 Clinton 35.6 Bush 33.5 Decrease
NOX Clinton 26.3 Bush 19.3 Decrease
So why are my numbers so different from Bubba's? Am I massaging the data to get the results I want? I'll let you decide.
In his post, Bubba says that the data shows how the Bush administration is "relaxed" on air pollution. So I decided to compare them to the previous administration. Looking at the data, taking the first term of the Clinton admin would be unfair, since many of the new regs were just going into effect, producing tremendous drops in emissions. Using the entire 8 years would artificially inflate his admissions, putting him at an unfair disadvantage. However, the data also shows that the lion's share of improvements had occurred by 1996, so I chose to use Clinton's second term as comparison. The rest is simple math. I took an average for the last four years (1997-200) of the Clinton administration, and compared it to the average for the first 2 years of the Bush administration.
Not a lot of massaging involved.
On the other hand, let's look at what Bubba did. He chose the year 1999 as his basis for comparison, even though Clinton still had a year left in office. Why?
It could be because 1999 represented a low point in emissions in all catagories at most coal fired plants in TVA. Was this due to some marvelous Clinton initiative? Nope. NOAA data shows that Jan, Feb, Nov and Dec of 1999 averaged almost Download file" target=_blank>4.5 degrees warmer (Excel summary of NOAA data) than usual while the rest of the year was only .8 degrees warmer than usual. Emissions were down because the winter was unusually mild. Unless you want to credit Clinton with el Nino, the unusual low emissions of 1999 do not represent a valid data point. This is further verified by the fact that nearly every emission rose back to a more normal level in 2000.
Bubba has endulged in a favorite ploy used by many environmentalists. Take the low point, regardless of circumstances, and compare it to current performance. Although you're guaranteed to get a dramatic increase the statistical invalidity of such a practice is readily apparent. Only by taking a series of data points can you get a true representative sample.
Posted by Rich at July 21, 2003 11:49 AM | TrackBackThe reason I picked 1999 was because that's the data I had in a spreadsheet for a previous post that was available at the time. I don't think TVA had all the annual data on their website at that time.
I believe the post you are referring to now (misspellings and all) was quite balanced, especially given my feelings about TVA, and gives TVA credit where credit is due.
And if you don't think Bush is trying (or already has) relaxed emission control regulations, you haven't been paying attention.
Posted by: SK Bubba on July 21, 2003 1:49 PMAnd as usual, you seem to be "cherry picking" comments to pick on.
Posted by: SK Bubba on July 21, 2003 2:32 PMOK, you chose 1999 somewhat at random; the fact that it happened to be the historical low for emissions is a coincidence. In light of the additional information I've provided, do you still think that the TVA data suggests that the Bush administration is damaging the environment? That is the statement that set off this little exercise.
Now, if by 'cherry picking', you mean 'commenting on posts that are factually in error', then I'm guilty as charged.
But I don't "pick on" posts. That has connotations of unfair harrassment, or bullying tactics. I do analyze the facts and logic behind the post and if those facts or logic come up lacking, I will point out the flaws.
I admit I don't comment on your satire, or purely opinion pieces because opinions are not really subject to factual analysis. But when you provide a factual basis for that opinion, and the facts aren't correct, then I've something to work with.
Such was the case here.
Posted by: rich on July 21, 2003 4:03 PMSo, you monitor my site for errors and "something to work with"? You and Bill seem to have a strange obsession with trashing SKB and whatever he might say today. Not that I'm complaining, I appreciate the traffic. And It seems to be a popular sport. :) LOL! (Is that the proper term?)
Anyway, which fact that I posted was in error? At any rate, I believe my post said that this may only be anecdotal evidence and that there might be other factors in play. (Of course, you left that part out, as you frequently do when quoting SKB, along with the props I gave TVA for reducing emissions at their diritest plants, but of course, you're not "cherry picking" to show that it's all Clinton's fault). You have suggested one other factor possibly in play with regard to increased emissions at some plants. I have suggested another. And you have completely ignored the increased CO2 emissions across the board. But as I recall you thing global warning is junk science, so I guess I can understand that.
Also, do you deny that Bush has weakened the "Clean Air" legislation with his "Clear Skies" proposals? Have you followed it? Do you deny that regulations in the 70's have had a clearly beneficial affect on emissions as shown by TVA's own data? Or do you attribute that to TVA's altruism?
Further, from a "loyal opposition" point of view, can you enumarate what Bush has done for the environment? Can you explain to us how the Bush administration policies promote cleaner air? I'd be very interested and if you can prove it I might even vote for him!
(P.S. The 1999 data wasn't "random". As I said, it was what was avialable at the time I started tracking this in a spreadsheet).
Posted by: SK Bubba on July 21, 2003 7:04 PMP.S. I notice you use the term "environmentalist" with the same disdain as you use "liberal".
So, can we infer that you care as little about the environment as you do poor, disenfranchised, underpriveleged people?
Again, I'd really like to see your "series of data points" that shows how the GOP has helped improve the environment. Or anything else.
Posted by: SK Bubba on July 21, 2003 8:30 PMNo, I read your site because it's entertaining and informative. I respond when I am moved to, weither in agreement or disagreement. I'm not trashing SKB. I kinda like the guy myself. I do take on your arguments when they're flawed. Look at it this way; when I expose a flaw in your argument, either factual or analytical, you can do one of three things
A) Ignore the problem and keep repeating the same faulty accusations
B) Modify your position to include the new information, resulting in a stronger position, less vulnerable to attack
or
C) Develop a new argument which supports your position which doesn't contain the flaw.
Since you're smart enough not to choose A, you end up with a stronger argument. See, I'm just trying to help!*grin*(Yes, LOL is the correct term, but I like using real words. I'm old fashioned that way.)
Your error in this post was analytical rather than factual, as you reasoned without good data. I just accessed all the data, and determined your argument, that recent TVA emissions proved that Bush was bad for the environment, was not supported by the data set you invoked, ie TVA emissions data.
No, I don't include a response to every point of your posts because when do, Barry B. says it puts him to sleep, and I try to be sensitive to the needs of our senior citizens.*ducking* More to the point, if your argument is sound, I don't attack it. The world is not a binary construct; there's room for differing opinions based on the same set of facts.
And even though I could construct a case from this set of data that Bush has continued Clinton's record, besting him in almost every catagory, I specifically did not, because there isn't enough data to make that claim. The most that can be said with a reasonably sure degree of confidence is that Bush's numbers to this point are commensurate with Clinton's.
Yes, I left out CO2 emissions because 1) as you know, I've discussed that area fairly exhaustively in the past, and 2) it wasn't part of your justification for the quote I disagreed with.
Environmental regulations, including the Clean Air act, have tremendously improved our air and water. I do not deny that Bush's revisions of the Clean Air act weaken some of those protections. But what I can't say is whether that is entirely a bad thing. It has to do with diminishing returns.
In any system, you reach a point where the cost for a given amount of improvement increases dramatically. I think we've reached that point in our environmental policies. As far as I know, the Clean Air act doesn't rescind any protective measures; it doesn't allow plants to pollute more. What it does is permit existing plants to continue at the same level, rather than reducing emissions further. New plants are still subject to the more stringent abatement measures.
This appears to me to be a reasonable approach when trying to allocate finite resources. The proof will be in the reaction of the environment. If the air gets worse over several years, we'll need to reassess the situation. If the air quality remains the same or continues to improve, then we're in good shape. Based on the dramatic improvement already achieved, I don't believe that we'll see a marked worsening in air quality over the next 10 years.
Ahhh crap! Barry B.'s snoring on his keyboard again!
Posted by: rich on July 21, 2003 8:41 PM