Shots Across The Bow

New CBS Poll

Bubba is crowing about the results of a new CBS poll which he claims shows that the 2004 election is in the bag for the democrats, barring some "manufactured" events, as long as they run on the economy and jobs. I took a look at the numbers myself, and found that Bubba may have overstated the case a bit.

Let's look at some of the results from the poll

• 67% approve of the job Bush is doing, including 41% of the Dems and 65% of the independents.You've lost the independents and haven't rallied your base. Hard to win that way

• 40% rate the economy as the most important problem. 60% rated everything else as more important. The economy works well to energize your base, but won't grab many independents.

• Approval of Bush's handling of the economy is 43%, indicating a weakness.However, this number is skewed by dems, who gave a 74% disapproval rating. Looks like some ground to be gained here, except that the approval ratings indicate that the dems have already gotten all the support they're going to get from this issue.
  
• Congress gets bad marks across the board.It's hard to see how this will play out. Are people reacting to republican actions or democratic obstructions? Based on the 2002 elections, I would have to say the numbers favor the latter, but we won't know for sure until the 2004 elections.
  
• Is the economy getting better or worse? Most (49%) say it is staying the same, with the remainder evenly split between improving or declining.Interestingly, even dems show 59% believing the economy is staying the same or improving, and independents polled 67% staying the same or improving, again making it difficult to see how dems can gain much ground on this issue. The trend is also positive, with a 3% gain fro people believing the economy is improving.
  
• Is Bush Liberal, Moderate, or Conservative? In something of a surprise, reps saw Bush as more conservative than did dems, 20% of whom saw Bush as a liberal.Proof that dope does cause brain damage
  
• Does Bush care about the problems of people like you? 67% said Some or A lot, including 62% of the independents.A non starter for the dems. A solid majority feel Bush is connected to their concerns.
  
• How much of the economy is the result of Bush's policies? 62% said the economy had little or nothing to do with Bush's policies.The dems were in a virtual deadlock 49% saying a lot, 48% saying little or nothing. Again, it will be difficult to get any significant gains here.
  
• q 14 and 15 reveal an interesting dichotomy. While only 41% think the economy is the same or better than 2 years ago, 71% say that they are the same or better than they were 2 years ago. 58% of people believe the economy is worse today, even though only 29% say they are worse off. This difference indicates the success the dems have had in getting out their message, regardless of it's lack of factual basis.
  
• Does Bush favor the rich? 54% say yes, down from 58% in January. Class envy, the old standby. Here is one issue where the dems may find some traction.
  
• will a new tax cut help or hurt the economy? 41% say it will help, 33% say no effect.with 74% saying it will be good or at least do no damage, it will be hard to make this a major dem campaign issue.
  
• Does big business have too much influence? 57% too much, 29% too little or just right.Here's another issue for the dems to ride, with 60% of independents aggreeing with them.
  
• Has Bush made progress on the economy? 50% say some or a lot. 48% say not much or none. Independents are split on this one, so there may be a little ground to gain for the dems. But not much given the earlier responses.
  

I could go on, but the pattern is clear. On economic issues, independents seem to track the majority fairly closely, taking a position between the dems and the reps. Additionally, on those economic issues, dems show a sharp division in their evaluation of the President's performance. Disapproval within democrats seems to cluster at around 40-45%, indicating a small core of deeply partisan democrats, surrounded by a slightly larger number of more moderate democrats. In order for the dems to solidify their base and win the election, they have to sway the moderates to their side, as well as pick up a significant number of independents.

Based on the issues ranked as most important, that won't be an easy task. Independents stayed within a few points of the majority on most of the economic issues, indicating that any split will slightly favor the reps. In any case, there won't be a huge advantage gained by the dems. In the second most important issue, terrorism and home defense, independents side solidly with reps. Dems wont get much play on that issue.

Issues where the dems are strong are traditional liberal issues like healthcare, education, welfare, and medicare. These are the issues where independents poll with dems, and represent the best chance for dems to win in 2004.

Posted by Rich at May 14, 2003 1:09 PM | TrackBack