May 8, 2003
A SARS comparison
I went through the WHO data on SARS, compiled since March 17. I pulled the data into two charts. The first chart shows the total number of cases, daily number of new cases, cumulative deaths, and cumulative recoveries for the world, except for China.
This next chart shows the same stats for China alone.
As you can see, there are some marked differences. For example, in China, despite a skyrocketing number of new cases, the death rate seems to be fairly constant, something which doesn't match the profile of the world at large. Also note that the Chinese recovery rate, particularly in the early stages of rporting, is almost triple that of the world at large.
These two facts alone are enough to tell me that China is not reporting true numbers on the extent of the epidemic. Also note that while the number of new cases in the world has dropped off to an average of 25 cases per day, China still sees over 100 cases per day, with occasional blasts of 400 or more, when news from a rural area comes in.
In short, while the world as a whole has gotten SARS under control, China has not come close. That much is clear even with the flawed data the Chinese are supplying.
Posted by Rich at May 8, 2003 3:20 PM | TrackBack