last post of the evening I've found enough bad news for the night.
First read this
Asia Times Online reported recently (Kashmir just the beginning in jihadis' vision of war) that a third force was operating in the Kashmir conflict - dissidents within the jihadi groups who have become disenchanted with the policies of their own groups and those of the government. Their goal is to provoke friction between India and Pakistan to such a point that war becomes inevitable.
Pakistani strategic sources believe that Pakistan has only 72 hours worth of fighting strength, after which it would have to consider the nuclear option. These sources add that Pakistan has mounted its Shaheen missiles (which can carry nuclear warheads with a range of 750 kilometers) at various positions and will "make optimum use of them in the case of war".Neither country has a stable nuclear-deterrent equation, nor transparency in their nuclear doctrines, that is, under what circumstances they might use such weapons to deter "unacceptable" damage, or even what "unacceptable" is. India has not yet officially spelled out its doctrine, beyond saying it will not be the first to use nuclear weapons. Pakistan refuses no-first-use. It has indicated that it will "defend" itself in a nuclear way in the event of a conventional attack overrunning it.
Now read this:
If there is war, it will escalate to nuclear quickly, probably within 72 hours of any all-out assault by India. Pakistan will feel a nuclear first strike will be its only option, and I don't think Pakistan's military leadership will have any qualms about it. India will then retaliate with a massive nuclear response, literally wiping Pakistan off the map.But notice I said, "If there is war." War is by no means certain. India is fed up with Pakistani-sponsored terrorism, but the leadership also realizes what is at stake and what will happen if they invade Pakistan.
Sweet dreams.
Posted by Rich at May 22, 2002 2:55 AM